Balance of power
Watch clock
Environment
Leadership Now priority slate
Status is our candidate's position in the AP count: Won / Lost are AP calls; Leading / Trailing are the raw count.Pre-election expectation is our forecast (blend of ratings, bias-corrected polls and markets; draft until the Nov. 3 freeze); races outside it fall back to the older polling average or rating model.Desk projection is our county model's projected final margin with its uncertainty: DESK CALL Likely Leaning Too close.
Forecast tier tags
Strongly favored over 88%Slight advantage 67–88%Neck and neck 33–67%Slight disadvantage 12–33%Uphill fight under 12%
Tiers are our forecast's chance that the Democratic or independent candidate wins. Plain tags such as Toss-up are the race rating from the results feed, so the two can differ. Cook R+6 is the Cook Partisan Voting Index, how the seat leans compared with the nation; it's blank where we don't have one, including governor races. Italic tags such as Fast count say how the state counts. Hover over any tag for detail.
What the count tags mean
- Early vote first Early votes report first and Election Day votes lean Republican, so early Democratic leads tend to narrow.
- Mail counted late Absentees finish late Some mail late Large batches land late, so early leads can move.
- Late ballots take days Mail arrives for days Slow count The count runs past election night.
- Fast count Usually complete or nearly complete on the night.
- Ranked choice Tonight's numbers are first choices only.
Early tells
Watchlist
| Race | Rating | Leader | Margin | Expected | vs. exp. | Est. in | AP | Desk projection | Updated |
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